09 December 2025
Indonesia’s 3Q25 GDP growth exceeded consensus at 5.04% YoY, supported by strong government spending and resilient exports, including solid shipments to China. October 2025 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.86% YoY—the highest since April 2024—driven primarily by higher personal care service costs and a sharp increase in gold prices in line with global commodity trends. Bank Indonesia kept the BI rate unchanged in November to maintain attractive yields for foreign portfolio inflows and defend the Rupiah, while reaffirming its pro-growth stance and commitment to strengthening macroprudential policy transmission.
Business activity also strengthened, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 51.2 in October as new domestic orders grew at their fastest pace since March and employment increased for a third consecutive month, even though export orders declined for a second month. We believe the improvement in PMI partly reflects rising confidence in the government, particularly following the new Minister of Finance’s more pro-growth posture.
Fiscal policy remained supportive, with government spending rising 30% MoM in October 2025, driven by social and material expenditures. Revenue collection improved but remains lower on a YoY basis. Disbursement of priority programs has also accelerated, reaching IDR 611 trillion in the first ten months of 2025. Looking ahead, we expect fiscal spending to continue gaining momentum in line with the Ministry of Finance’s emphasis on effective and efficient policy transmission.
Product Recommendation
| EQUITY FUND | |
|---|---|
| MITRA A | MITRA invests in majority domestic stocks, with a focus on Big Cap stocks. Categorized as a Long-Term investment with high risk. Investors bear the risk associated with the equity portfolio. |
| MICB A | MICB primarily invests in stocks included in the LQ45 index. Categorized as a Long-Term investment with high risk. Investors bear the risk associated with the equity portfolio. |
| BALANCED FUND | |
| MIA | MIA invests in Equities, Bonds and Money Market with Medium Term and categorized Medium Risk. Investors bear the risk associated with the equity portfolio. |
| MISB | MISB invests in Sharia Equities, Sukuk and Money Market Sharia with Medium Term and categorized Medium Risk. Investors bear the risk associated with the equity portfolio. |
| EQUITY INDEX AND ETF FUND | |
| FTSE ESG A | FTSEESG primarily invests in stocks included in the FTSE Indonesia ESG Index. Categorized as a Long-Term investment with high risk. Investors bear the risk associated with the equity portfolio. |
| XMLF | Mandiri ETF LQ45 is an ETF that invests in blue-chip stocks listed in the LQ45 Index. Categorized as a Long-Term investment with high risk. Investors bear the risk associated with the portfolio of these stocks. |
For More Information
Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Mandiri Investasi Email – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi Website – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
DISCLAIMER
The opinions expressed in the article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for individuals or specific mutual fund or investment products. It is intended solely to provide education about the financial industry. Views reflected in the content may change at any time without notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article cannot be used as a basis for calculation to buy or sell a mutual fund. This data is performance records based on historical data and is not a guarantee of future mutual fund performance. Investment through mutual funds carries risks. Investors are required to read and understand the prospectus before deciding to invest through mutual funds.
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