08 January 2026
In December 2025, the month is dominated by volatility related to The Fed decision coming mid-December. Contrary to market expectations, a December cut became less clear due to cautious comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. However, this sentiment is reversed with the data showing a slower economy. ADP data showed that The US market lost 32k jobs in November, while PMI worsened to 48.2. Inflation remains relatively tame with PCE inflation printing 2.8% YoY in November. This prompted The Fed to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.5%-3.75%. Furthermore, it released its forecast for 2026 with a single rate cut slated.
US Growth remains resilient, with the country returning an above-expectation 3Q25 GDP growth of 4.3% YoY driven by accelerated consumer spending on healthcare and computing services. Throughout 2025, AI investments continue to grow with recent estimates that continued investments into the AI ecosystem contributed 1.1% of GDP growth to The US during 1H25.
In other regions, divergence can be seen. The Bank of Japan decided to hike its rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995 on elevated inflation well above BoJ’s 2% target and broad JPY weakness. The European Central Bank continues to hold out its policy rate, citing manageable inflation and growth trajectory. The Bank of England walks in lockstep with The Fed by cutting its rate to 3.75%, marking the disparity in global economic trajectory.
Going forward, we still expect room for easing continuation in the US on the back of still healthy growth and inflation trajectory. We believe that the global cycle is moving toward the peak of goldilocks cycle in 2026, with healthy growth and inflation profile allowing for more accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. This in turn will create a flush liquidity environment which would give positive impact to financial markets.
Product Recommendation
| EQUITY FUND | |
|---|---|
| MGSED A | MGSED invests in Sharia-compliant Equities Abroad listed in the Sharia Securities List. Categorized as a Long-Term investment with high risk. Investors bear the risk associated with the equity portfolio. |
| MASED A | MASED invests in Sharia-compliant Equities in Asia listed in the Sharia Securities List. Categorized as a Long-Term investment with high risk. Investors bear the risk associated with the equity portfolio. |
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DISCLAIMER
The opinions expressed in the article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for individuals or specific mutual fund or investment products. It is intended solely to provide education about the financial industry. Views reflected in the content may change at any time without notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article cannot be used as a basis for calculation to buy or sell a mutual fund. This data is performance records based on historical data and is not a guarantee of future mutual fund performance. Investment through mutual funds carries risks. Investors are required to read and understand the prospectus before deciding to invest through mutual funds.In July, global market appeared to be tinted with a more bullish sentiment. We saw an almost uniform increase in the indices of US, China, and Indonesia, with EU lagging behind. The movement may be an indication of what the market sees as stabilisation in global economic & political landscapes, such as near-term conclusion of US tariffs and Trump’s softening stance on China. At the time of writing, many countries have struck a deal regarding tariffs with the US. Major countries such as India have secured a 25% tariff, while the EU is at 15%. In light of this deal, Trump has also expressed a more friendly tone toward China, mentioning that he will deal with the country in a very friendly fashion. We note however that China itself is still in a negotiating process with the US, and faces a separate deadline until the 12th of August. Indonesia itself secured a 19% tariff deal, on par with the Philippines but relatively lower compared to peers. Regardless, global market itself seems to have become comfortable with the tariff issue, and further news on negotiations or deals may have a more muted impact going forward. China’s domestic economy has also shown some positive signs, including its 5.2% YOY GDP growth in 2Q25, supported by frontrunning companies seeking to secure inventory before additional tariff uncertainties. China has also recently made an announcement on the largest dam in the world to be built, while at the same time conducting an audit of its coking coal miners. The project, alongside the audit may benefit commodities relating to metallurgy and at the same time push China’s economy toward further recovery.
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