Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Markets rebounded on the roundup to FOMC meeting. S&P500 +0.3% WoW, Nasdaq +1% WoW.

• Domestic Indices: Markets rebounded after protests subsided. The JCI returned 0.47% WoW. The large cap LQ45 returned +0.3% WoW. Foreign net outflow with USD -352 mn WoW.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • US August Non-Farm Payroll +22k (Prev: 73k, Cons: 75k). June jobs revised to -13k, the first negative since COVID. Unemployment 4.3% (Prev: 4.2%, Cons: 4.3%). Data supportive for a Fed rate cut.

  • Indonesia slower Aug25 inflation at +2.31% YoY (Prev: 2.4%, Cons: 2.5%), with -0.08% MoM deflation driven by F&B and Tobacco.

  • Indonesia trade balance surplus USD 4.1bn (Prev: 4.1bn), driven by CPO and iron & steel exports.

  • Indonesia Aug25 PMI rose to 51.5 (Prev: 49.2), entering expansion territory.

  • BI and Ministry of Finance opened possibility of jointly financing priority programs, showing another pro-growth stance.

  • Ministry of Finance allocated IDR 16tn from 2025 budget surplus (SAL) to inject into Himbara for Koperasi Merah Putih.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • China inaugurated the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit with military parade on 3rd September, attended by Russia, North Korea, India, and Indonesia.

  • Protests in Indonesia toned down after concessions and firm actions against violence perpetrators. Demonstrators focus on 17+8 demands.

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • Bank Jan–Jul 2025 results showed broad weakness with large banks hit by NIM compression amidst tight liquidity.

  • PANI announced a rights issue to consolidate 44% of CBDK (ex-Agung Sedayu Group).

  • Axiata divested 5% share in Linknet, reducing effective ownership to 70%.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: flat at 15.2

• Bond Market: UST yield rallied to 4.08% (Prev: 4.26%), IndoGB yield corrected to 6.4% (Prev: 6.32%).

• DXY: 97.7

• Rupiah: weakened to Rp 16,378/USD

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

  • Monday, 8 September: China trade balance, Indonesia FX reserve, Japan GDP

  • Wednesday, 10 September: US PPI, Indonesia Consumer Confidence Index

  • Thursday, 11 September: US CPI, Indonesia Auto Sales

 

Summary & Recommendation

Foreign inflows have returned to the JCI, supported by government program rollout and higher growth prospects toward 2026. Positioning in index funds is recommended to capture this foreign flow momentum. With political risks still elevated, near-term volatility is expected; tactically holding 4–6% of the portfolio in cash is advised as a buffer.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD Indeks FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF, SRI-Kehati, RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+11,29%	+11,12%
LQ45	+0,40%	-3,25%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-0,25%	-2,98%
MICB A	-1,14%	-3,37%
ASEAN5	-0,78%	-5,47%
MGSED	+4,43%	+5,60%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+1,08%	+0,20%
ETF
XMLF	+1,17%	+0,27%
BALANCED
MISB	+7,20%	+10,32%
MIA	+0,72%	-0,13%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,92%	+6,85%
MIDO2	+2,94%	+6,19%
IDAMAN A	+2,64%	+4,36%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,16%	+3,09%
MMUSD	+0,78%	+2,10%

 

*The data above is as of September 4th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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