Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Markets rebounded over a good start of US earnings season and over Fed Cut sentiment. S&P500 +1.7% WoW, Nasdaq +2.1% WoW.
• Domestic Indices: JCI corrected as traders took profits after month long rally. JCI -4.1% WoW while the LQ45 -2.7%. Foreign inflow was USD 20 Mn.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

  • Jerome Powell’s recent remarks and The Fed’s October beige book highlight slight softening in economic activity and increased risk in labor market. This reinforces the view of another cut rate in October Fed meeting. Additionally, Powell also signaled The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet due to liquidity conditions.

  • 9M25 APBN: Revenue is still soft at -7% YoY and 65% of APBN outlook. dragged by weaker corporate income tax and non tax receipts. Spending realization -0.8% YoY, 63% of outlook dragged by slower absorption of key programs. Overall, the fiscal deficit stood at 1.6% of GDP.

  • Government announced an additional Rp30tn (0.2% of GDP) stimulus package to boost household consumption and strengthen youth employment. The package consists of expanded cash transfers (BLT) and a new internship program targeting fresh graduates.

  • Indonesian government extended VAT incentive for first home purchase until the end of 2027 on ready-to-occupy houses worth up to IDR 2 bn.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • The bankruptcy of US Auto manufacturer First Brands and losses in two regional banks raises fears of a crack amidst strong economic numbers.

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • Prabowo signed Presidential Regulation (Perpres) No.109 of 2025 which governs urban waste-to-energy management administered by Danantara. The electricity would be priced at 20 US cents/kWh, a steep increase from existing power tariff.

  • Komdigi just completed the 1.4 GHz spectrum auction with winners including WIFI IJ and DSSA IJ. TLKM was not able to win any bids.

  • September 2025 cement industry volume continues to weakened with overall industry volume -2% YoY led by bulk cement which declined 9% YoY.

  • Data shows SOE banks have disbursed IDR 112.5 Tn of injected liquidity (56% of the initial injection).

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: Increased to 20.8
• Bond Market: UST yield flat at 4.05%. IndoGB yield rallied to 5.93% (prev: 6.13%), marking the first time yield went sub 6% since 2021.
• DXY: Flat at 98.43.
• Rupiah: flat at Rp 16,580/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • Monday, 20 October: China GDP
  • Wednesday, 22 October: Bank Indonesia Meeting
  • Thursday, 23 October: Indonesia M2
  • Friday, 24 October: Flash PMI

 

Summary & Recommendation

Despite market selloff from global headwinds and profit taking, we are still positive on the back of continuation of monetary easing and incrementally positive domestic economy. We expect heightened volatility on the onset of Trump-Xi meeting and risk in SMID caps profit taking ahead of year end holidays. We advise to maintain cash tactically at 5-10% of portfolio.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MISB, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+8,63%	+11,80%
LQ45	-1,95%	-6,57%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+1,99%	-1,99%
MICB A	-0,36%	-4,27%
ASEAN5	+1,48%	-4,71%
MGSED	+4,74%	+10,52%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-2,88%	-4,62%
ETF
XMLF	-2,24%	-3,22%
BALANCED
MISB	+11,13%	+18,61%
MIA	+4,47%	+3,02%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+3,03%	+8,39%
MIDO2	+4,24%	+9,08%
IDAMAN A	+3,00%	+5,99%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,05%	+3,57%
MMUSD	+0,72%	+2,42%

*The data above is as of October 17th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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