Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Markets rallied on the back of rate cut and further easing outlook. S&P500 +1.2% WoW, Nasdaq +2.2% WoW.

• Domestic Indices: Combination of Fiscal Stimulus, BI cut, and Fed cut pushed market to rebound. The JCI returned +2.5% WoW, closing to a new high of 8051. LQ45 returned +0.65% WoW. Foreign net inflow USD +182 mn WoW.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • The Federal Open Market Committee voted to cut interest rate to 4.00–4.25% (prev: 4.25–4.5%). The Fed’s dot plot expects a further 50bps cut until the end of 2025.

  • Bank Indonesia surprises with 25bps rate cut to 4.75%, marking the third consecutive cut. BI also cut Deposit Facility Rate by 50bps to 3.75%.

  • Indonesia Government introduced a stimulus package worth IDR 17 trillion covering internship programs, tax incentives, and aids.

  • Indonesia Parliament approved a target deficit of 2.68% of GDP for 2026 (prev: 2.48%).

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • Israel launched an offensive to Gaza City which attracted international condemnation.

  • US-China entered talks as prelude to a trade deal with matters including TikTok US ownership. Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are said to enter talks soon.

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • Bank Mandiri achieved -8% YoY profit growth during 6M25, citing a spike in operating expenses; downgraded loan growth target to 8–10% (prev: 10–12%) and NIM to 4.8–5% (prev: 5–5.2%).

  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA) achieved +8% YoY profit growth during 8M25, supported by double-digit loan growth and stable NIM at 5.8%; maintained 2025 loan growth guidance at 6–8%.

  • Aug-25 cement sales: 5,794k tons (-3.8% YoY); Bag: ~4,087k tons (-1.3% YoY); Bulk: ~1,707k tons (-9.3% YoY).

  • United Tractors (UNTR IJ) signed agreement to purchase The Duop Gold Mine from J Resources Indonesia (PSAB IJ).

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: flat at 15.5.

• Bond Market: UST yield corrected to 4.14 (prev: 4.06); IndoGB yield flat at 6.3.

• DXY: 97.6. Rupiah weakened to Rp 16,590/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

  • Tuesday, 23 September: Indonesia M2, S&P PMI

  • Thursday, 25 September: US GDP

  • Friday, 26 September: US PCE Inflation

 

Summary & Recommendation

Foreign inflows have returned to the JCI, supported by the government’s program rollout and improving growth prospects toward 2026. We recommend taking positions in index funds to capture foreign flow momentum. Given elevated political risks, we anticipate near-term volatility and advise holding 4–6% of portfolio in cash as a buffer.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD Indeks FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF, SRI-Kehati, RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+15.53%	+13.72%
LQ45	+4.54%	-2.02%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+3.78%	-1.47%
MICB A	+3.08%	-2.15%
ASEAN5	+3.24%	-4.08%
MGSED	+8.44%	+9.73%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+4.70%	+1.35%
ETF
XMLF	+4.34%	+1.47%
BALANCED
MISB	+9.63%	+12.63%
MIA	+3.54%	+1.15%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+3.46%	+7.89%
MIDO2	+3.02%	+6.79%
IDAMAN A	+2.73%	+5.38%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1.12%	+3.26%
MMUSD	+0.76%	+2.21%

*The data above is as of September 19th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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