Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Markets corrected after a Fed cut induced rally. S&P500 -0.3% WoW, Nasdaq -0.65% WoW.

• Domestic Indices: Foreign flow pushed down large caps stock while conglomerates aided JCI. The JCI returned +0.6% WoW. LQ45 returned -0.91% WoW. Foreign net inflow with USD +444 mn WoW due to crossing transaction.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • US 2Q25 growth surpassed expectations at +3.8% YoY (Prev: -0.5%, Cons: 3.3%).

  • US 2Q25 PCE inflation at +2.6% YoY (Prev: 3.5%, Cons: 2.5%). Aug25 PCE at +2.7% YoY (Prev: 2.6%, Cons: 2.7%).

  • Indonesia 8M25 fiscal deficit reached -IDR321.6tn (-1.35% of GDP vs -0.69% of GDP in 8M24), with revenue lagging -7.8% YoY.

  • Government confirmed no tobacco excise hike after weeks of rumors.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • The White House announced a new USD 100,000 fee for H1-B visas for workers outside the US, valid for 12 months with exemptions possible.

  • Indonesia and the European Union ratified IEU-CEPA, cutting import duties on >90% products from Jan 2027, positively impacting ~USD 30bn of Indonesian exports.

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • Freeport Indonesia to cut production until 2026F after Grasberg mine accident.

  • SOE banks offered 4% USD TD rate to boost domestic reserves; offer later cancelled.

  • Ministry of Energy suspended 190 coal & mineral companies for failing reclamation guarantees, expected to ease oversupply.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: flat at 15.3.

• Bond Market: UST yield up to 4.19% (Prev: 4.14%), IndoGB yield up to 6.43% (Prev: 6.3%).

• DXY: strengthened to 98.2 on strong US data. Rupiah weakened to Rp 16,730/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

  • Tuesday, 30 Sept: US Chicago PMI

  • Wednesday, 1 Oct: Indonesia CPI, Trade Balance, PMI

  • Friday, 3 Oct: US NFP

 

Summary & Recommendation

Developing news created volatility post Fed cut rally. We maintain tactical allocation to flow-sensitive large caps and bottom-up conviction stocks. Expect near-term volatility and advise tactically holding 5–10% cash buffer.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MISB, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+17,43%	+14,40%
LQ45	+4,16%	-2,91%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+5,71%	-1,10%
MICB A	+3,63%	-2,76%
ASEAN5	+5,14%	-3,78%
MGSED	+5,95%	+9,38%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+3,78%	+0,45%
ETF
XMLF	+3,75%	+0,52%
BALANCED
MISB	+13,47%	+14,11%
MIA	+4,79%	+1,53%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,74%	+7,45%
MIDO2	+2,29%	+6,31%
IDAMAN A	+1,85%	+5,20%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,11%	+3,34%
MMUSD	+0,74%	+2,27%

*The data above is as of September 26th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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