Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Markets rallied on the back of rate cut sentiment. S&P500 +1.6% WoW, Nasdaq +2% WoW.

• Domestic Indices: Markets is volatile amidst cabinet reshuffle and new MoF programs. The JCI returned -0.17% WoW. LQ45 returned +0.6% WoW. Foreign net outflow with USD -520 mn WoW.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani was reshuffled with Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa replacing her post as Minister of Finance. One of his first programs is to deploy IDR 200tn of SILPA funds in Bank Indonesia into SOE Banks, injecting system liquidity.

  • US court dismissed Donald Trump’s dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

  • US prices come to support rate cut narrative. PPI comes at -0.1% MoM (Prev: 0.7%, Cons: 0.3%) while CPI comes at 0.4% MoM (Prev: 0.2%, Cons: 0.3%).

  • China August inflation comes at -0.4% YoY (Prev: 0%, Cons: -0.2%).

  • Indonesia FX Reserves comes at 150.7 USDbn, driven by government external debt repayment and Rupiah Stabilization. This covers 6.3 months of imports.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • French Government fell apart after a failed deficit bill proposal.

  • Israel bombed a Qatari village in Doha citing its hitting Hamas target.

  • Asia saw political instability with resignation in multiple leaders such as Japan’s, Thailand’s, and Nepalese PM.

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • Indo Auto Sales continues to be soft:

    • August 2025: 4W sales: 61.8k units (-19% YoY); 2W sales: 4578k units (+0.7% YoY)

    • 8M25: 4W sales: 497k units (-11.3% YoY); 2W sales: 4.3m units (-1.7% YoY)

  • The government seized 148ha of nickel site in Weda Bay over forest violations.

  • MDKA will spin off its gold operation (named EMAS IJ) under an IPO set for September 2025. The company aims valuation of IDR 29–49tn.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: flat at 15.2.

• Bond Market: UST yield flat at 4.06. IndoGB yield rallied to 6.3 (Prev: 6.4%).

• DXY: 97.6. Rupiah flat at Rp 16,377/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • Wednesday, 17 September: FOMC Meeting, BI Meeting

 

Summary & Recommendation

Foreign inflows have returned to the JCI, supported by the government’s program rollout and improving growth prospects heading into 2026. We recommend taking positions in index funds to capture this foreign flow momentum. At the same time, given elevated political risks, we anticipate near-term volatility and advise tactically holding 4–6% of the portfolio in cash as a buffer.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD Indeks FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF, SRI-Kehati, RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+9,02%	+10,93%
LQ45	-0,39%	-2,65%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-1,06%	-2,76%
MICB A	-1,54%	-3,24%
ASEAN5	-1,56%	-5,30%
MGSED	+5,92%	+8,47%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-0,53%	+0,65%
ETF
XMLF	-0,36%	+0,85%
BALANCED
MISB	+6,25%	+10,44%
MIA	+0,57%	+0,21%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,77%	+7,12%
MIDO2	+2,51%	+6,31%
IDAMAN A	+2,91%	+5,76%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,14%	+3,18%
MMUSD	+0,78%	+2,16%

*The data above is as of September 12th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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