Market Performance:

• Global Indices: Markets rose amid Fed cut sentiment. S&P500 +1.1% WoW, Nasdaq +1.3% WoW.
• Domestic Indices: Indonesia declined as Rupiah weakened. JCI -1.6% WoW, LQ45 -2.2% WoW. Foreign outflow reached –USD 219 mn.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • The US Government entered a shutdown after failing to pass the budget in Congress, delaying economic data releases.

  • US September Flash PMI fell to a 3-month low of 53.6, while ADP employment data showed a softer economy—supporting earlier rate-cut expectations.

  • Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs announced a fiscal stimulus worth IDR 32tn including ticket discounts and tax incentives.

  • Indonesia September inflation rose to 2.65% (Prev: 2.3%, Cons: 2.5%), mainly driven by food prices during the dry season.

  • Indonesia’s trade balance hit a 3-year high of USD 5.49bn (Prev: 4.18bn, Cons: 3.99bn) due to stronger coal and CPO exports.

  • Indonesia PMI softened to 50.4 (Prev: 51.5).

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • Russia escalated tensions in Europe through minor strikes and border violations into NATO countries.

  • The White House announced a 20-point peace plan for Gaza, including demilitarization and humanitarian access.

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • Freeport Indonesia is in talks with the government to divest an additional 12% stake.

  • Indonesia closed 1,000 illegal tin mines, pushing global prices near USD 36,000/ton.

  • August banking results remained soft with compressing NIM across major banks.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX rose to 16.7.
• Bond Market: UST yield eased to 4.12% (prev: 4.19%), IndoGB yield rebounded to 6.37% (prev: 6.43%).
• DXY weakened to 97.7, Rupiah strengthened to IDR 16,535/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

  • Oct 7: US Trade Balance, Indonesia FX Reserves

  • Oct 8: Indonesia Consumer Confidence

  • Oct 10: China M2, Indonesia Auto Sales

 

Summary & Recommendation

Despite short-term volatility due to Rupiah weakness, we remain positive on the macro outlook, supported by fiscal stimulus and improving exports. We recommend focusing on conviction stocks with strong fundamentals while tactically holding 5–10% cash.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MISB, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+18,03%	+14,67%
LQ45	+2,56%	-5,01%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+6,35%	+0,40%
MICB A	+3,79%	-2,23%
ASEAN5	+5,79%	-2,36%
MGSED	+6,08%	+11,42%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+2,27%	-2,09%
ETF
XMLF	+2,06%	-1,70%
BALANCED
MISB	+15,37%	+18,52%
MIA	+7,15%	+3,84%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,77%	+7,65%
MIDO2	+2,59%	+6,85%
IDAMAN A	+1,82%	+5,63%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,08%	+3,42%
MMUSD	+0,73%	+2,33%

*The data above is as of October 3rd, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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