Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Markets corrected over renewed trade war concerns. S&P500 -2.4% WoW, Nasdaq -2.5% WoW.
• Domestic Indices: JCI rebounded on large-cap strength. JCI +1.7% WoW; LQ45 +1.1%. Foreign inflow reached USD 193 mn.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • Donald Trump threatened an additional 100% tariff on China and canceled his summit with Xi Jinping after China’s new export control regulation. Total proposed tariff now stands at 130%.

  • US ISM Services PMI slowed to 50 (Prev: 52, Cons: 51.7), signaling weakness in the services sector.

  • Gold surpassed USD 4,000/oz as investors sought safety amid US government shutdown and fiscal uncertainty.

  • Indonesia’s FX reserves fell to USD 148.7 bn (Prev: 150.7 bn) as BI intervened to stabilize the Rupiah.

  • Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa plans to place the government’s SAL balance in regional banks (BPDs) while maintaining IDR 100 tn deposits at BI.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • Israel and Gaza reached the first phase of a ceasefire under Trump’s 20-point peace plan.

  • France entered political turmoil after PM Sébastien Lecornu resigned amid budget deadlock.

  • Japan appointed its first female Prime Minister, Takaichi Sanae, known for her conservative and expansionary policies.

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • Auto sales remain sluggish: 9M25 4W sales 561k units (-11% YoY); 2W sales 4.8m (-0.7% YoY). Non-BYD Chinese brands gained 20% YoY market share.

  • Danantara to deploy USD 10bn in 2025 for waste-to-energy projects.

  • Garuda Indonesia to secure IDR 30tn funding from Danantara via private placement.

  • PT Timah acquired six smelters confiscated from illegal miners during President Prabowo’s Belitung visit.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX rose to 16.7.

• Bond Market: UST yield rallied to 4.05% (prev: 4.12%), IndoGB yield strengthened to 6.13% (prev: 6.37%).

• DXY at 98.98; Rupiah volatile but closed flat at Rp 16,550/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

  • Tue, 7 Oct: US Trade Balance, Indonesia FX Reserve

  • Wed, 15 Oct: US CPI*, China Inflation, Indonesia FDI

  • Fri, 10 Oct: US NFP* (*pending shutdown resolution)

 

Summary & Recommendation

With trade war fears resurfacing, we expect near-term volatility but see opportunities in resilient, fundamentally strong stocks. Commodity-related assets may serve as effective hedges. Maintain 5–10% cash allocation tactically.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MISB, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+17,88%	+16,64%
LQ45	+1,86%	-4,00%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+7,01%	+1,88%
MICB A	+3,51%	-1,49%
ASEAN5	+6,46%	-0,94%
MGSED	+5,80%	+11,37%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+0,84%	-1,74%
ETF
XMLF	+1,40%	-0,64%
BALANCED
MISB	+16,89%	+21,83%
MIA	+8,88%	+6,10%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,75%	+7,99%
MIDO2	+3,04%	+7,82%
IDAMAN A	+1,98%	+5,49%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,07%	+3,49%
MMUSD	+0,73%	+2,38%

*The data above is as of October 10th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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