Weekly Market Recap 29 June – 3 July 2026

Market Summary:

Global Equity: Global equities mostly higher with MSCI World Index gained +2.07%WoW supported by softer US jobs data that eased expectation of Fed rate hike.
Domestic Equity: JCI fell -0.35% WoW as currency risk came to the fore following the country’s first trade deficit since 2020 and rising concern over the sustainability of the external balance. Foreign outflow: IDR3.2tn WoW
Domestic Bond Market: IndoGB 10Y yield flat to 7.14% (+2bps WoW).

Key News of The Week:

US jobs data softened as June payrolls rose just 57,000 with prior months revised down 74,000; unemployment dipped to 4.2%. ADP hiring also missed, though JOLTS openings beat.
US ISM manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June from 54.0, a sixth straight month of expansion; new orders stayed firm at 56.0 while prices paid fell sharply to 73.0, hinting cost pressures are peaking.
Indonesia June CPI accelerated to 3.34%YoY driven by transport and fuel prices while core inflation rose to 2.76%YoY, the highest since Apr ’23.
Indonesia recorded a USD1.61bn trade deficit, ending a six-year surplus streak, mainly due to weaker CPO export and stronger machinery imports.
Indonesia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 in June 2026 from 50.0 in May, the lowest reading since June 2025 and the second contraction this year.

Our View

Next week, markets pivot around US services, trade, housing and labor data, which can re‑set the Fed path, the dollar and EM risk appetite. Meanwhile, domestic focus will be on FX reserves and Consumer confidence data.

Indonesian equities are likely to trade under the shadow of the recent trade deficit and heightened currency risk, with near‑term direction driven by rupiah, external data and the evolving gap between depressed valuations and underlying earnings. We see a growing disconnect between current market pricing and earnings trajectories, implying that alpha will continue to come mainly from disciplined sector allocation and stock selection. In fixed income, BI’s proactive currency-supportive stance, and the prospect of returning foreign flows make duration increasingly attractive for medium- to long-term investors, despite near-term volatility.

Product Recommendation:

RD MISB, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MASED, RD FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF SRI Kehati, MICB, MITRAS.

Discover a detailed analysis of this week’s market performance in our comprehensive Weekly Market Recap: Read More

PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-17.70%	-31.81%
LQ45	-20.23%	-31.05%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-15.07%	-22.74%
MICB A	-15.55%	-21.97%
ASEAN5	-15.54%	-23.42%
MGSED	+19.49%	+16.99%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-12.80%	-23.16%
ETF
XMLF	-16.90%	-27.79%
BALANCED
MISB	-13.09%	-13.55%
MIA	-16.06%	-15.82%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	-1.72%	-1.97%
MIDO2	-3.17%	-3.52%
IDAMAN A	-1.88%	-2.10%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1.24%	+1.11%
MMUSD	+1.38%	+1.27%

*The data above is as of July 3rd, 2026

For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – mandiri-investasi.co.id

DISCLAIMER‌
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The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

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