Weekly Market Recap 15 – 19 June 2026

Market Summary:

Global Equity: Global equities ended the holiday-shortened week higher, led by Kospi & Nikkei, supported by US–Iran peace deal, despite a hawkish first FOMC under new Fed Chair Warsh.
Domestic Equity: JCI gained +2.82% WoW, beating ASEAN (+1.94%), supported by local investors as foreign outflows persisted (-IDR 1.3tn) ahead of MSCI’s reviews.
Domestic Bond Market: IndoGB 10Y down to 7.08% (-34bps WoW) and 2Y to 7.12% (-15bps) as BI’s hike and tightening since May supported the rupiah. USDIDR slightly weaker at 17,804.

Key News of The Week:

US–Iran talks moved to a 60-day permanent deal in Switzerland as the interim ceasefire held, but Iran’s threat to re-close Hormuz and Israel–Hezbollah fighting keep it fragile; oil kept flowing, supporting near-term disinflation.
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% in Warsh’s first meeting but struck a hawkish tone, with the dot plot now pricing a 2026 hike. While the BOJ raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest since 1995 and pledged more hikes to come.
MSCI retained Indonesia’s emerging-market status, lifting the overhang of a frontier downgrade, however, the “information flow” rating was cut to negative as a transparency caveat.
Bank Indonesia’s decisive 25bps hike (now : 5.75%) reinforced its commitment to rupiah stability and underscored a proactive, credibility-building policy stance.

Our View

Next week’s focus shifts to MSCI’s June 23/24 Annual Market Classification decision for Indonesia, follow-through on the US–Iran signing, and incoming US inflation data that will determine whether the Fed’s penciled-in hike materializes. The durability of the Hormuz de-escalation and the oil price path remain crucial for the global disinflation narrative, the rates path, and EM risk sentiment.

Indonesian equities continue to trade at historically depressed valuations (IHSG -28.56% YTD) following heavy foreign outflows and the MSCI overhang, with domestic investors absorbing much of the foreign selling. While near-term direction hinges on the MSCI classification outcome, the rupiah, and global risk appetite, current pricing suggests a growing disconnect between market valuation and underlying earnings expectations; we continue to view alpha generation as primarily driven by sector allocation and stock selection. In fixed income, BI’s proactive currency-supportive stance, and the prospect of returning foreign flows make duration increasingly attractive for medium- to long-term investors, despite near-term volatility.

Product Recommendation:

RD MISB, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MASED, RD FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF SRI Kehati, MICB, MITRAS.

Discover a detailed analysis of this week’s market performance in our comprehensive Weekly Market Recap: Read More

PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-13.08%	-28.56%
LQ45	-15.64%	-28.02%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-10.77%	-19.46%
MICB A	-11.08%	-18.40%
ASEAN5	-11.26%	-20.12%
MGSED	+18.92%	+19.91%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-7.91%	-20.29%
ETF
XMLF	-12.03%	-24.70%
BALANCED
MISB	-11.39%	-11.85%
MIA	-14.10%	-13.85%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	-1.74%	-1.99%
MIDO2	-3.09%	-3.45%
IDAMAN A	-1.47%	-1.68%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1.16%	+1.02%
MMUSD	+1.27%	+1.16%

*The data above is as of June 19th, 2026

For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – mandiri-investasi.co.id

DISCLAIMER‌
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The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

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