Weekly Market Recap 10 - 14 August 2026

Market Summary:

Global Equity: Global equities ended the week mostly higher, led by the Kosp (+11.5%) and Nikkei (+4.74%), as investors rotated back into AI- and semiconductor-linked shares following July’s sell-off.
Domestic Equity:JCI ended the week slightly lower -0.12% as investors remained cautious amid the MSCI August review, President Prabowo Subianto’s annual speech, and the presentation of the 2027 state budget.
Domestic Bond Market: The 10Y IndoGB yield declined 10bps to 7.18%, supported by domestic demand. Bank holdings increased by IDR98tn WoW, lifting their ownership share to 16.8% of outstanding IndoGBs. Foreign investors recorded IDR1.8tn in net outflows WoW as of 13 August.

Key News of The Week:

US inflation moderated further in July, with headline CPI rising 3.4% YoY and core CPI increasing 2.5% YoY, both 10 bps lower than in June. July retail sales reportedly declined 0.6% MoM, signalling softer consumer momentum.
The US govt auctioned USD25Bn in UST 30Y at yield 5.216%, marking the highest rate for this tenor since 2001 amid growing concern over widen deficit.
Negotiation over the Strait of Hormuz stalled, while tanker attack persisted, pushing Brent crude price back toward US$88/bbl.
China’s CPI eased to 0.5%YoY, while PPI remained at 3.5%YoY, underscoring subdued domestic demand.
President Prabowo Subianto nominated Destry Damayanti as the sole candidate for BI Governor. This is viewed as supportive of monetary policy continuity, although the appointment process remains a key policy risk.
MSCI August review removed two stocks (GOTO, CPIN) from Global Standard Index and nine stocks from the small caps.
President Prabowo proposed a 2027 budget with IDR4,097.2Tn spending and IDR3,426Tn revenue, implying a fiscal deficit of 2.4% of GDP. The budget targets 6% economic growth and 2.5% inflation.

Our View

Geopolitical risk will likely remain a key market driver in 2H26. Our base case is for oil prices to remain elevated but below their 1H peaks. This should limit inflationary pressures and gradually improve global risk appetite. Next week’s key macro agenda includes global manufacturing PMIs, BI rate decision, and Indonesia’s balance of payments data.

With JCI valuations still compressed, we continue to see alpha from disciplined sector allocation and view 2Q26 earnings quality as the key differentiator into 2H26. In fixed income, we retain tactical 2–5yr carry and keep duration defensive, extending only on confirmed IDR stabilization and further oil de-escalation.

Key domestic risks including policy uncertainty, BI leadership transition, and MSCI-related concerns over market accessibility, liquidity, foreign ownership, and index eligibility, which could weigh on foreign flows.

Product Recommendation:

RD MISB, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MASED, MICB, MITRA, MITRAS, RD FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF SRI Kehati, ETF Mandiri Emas Syariah.

Discover a detailed analysis of this week’s market performance in our comprehensive Weekly Market Recap: Read More

PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-4.78%	-25.96%
LQ45	-3.89%	-25.31%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-3.70%	-16.49%
MICB A	-4.46%	-16.07%
ASEAN5	-5.64%	-18.71%
MGSED	-2.00%	+13.10%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-2.17%	-17.86%
ETF
XMLF	-2.63%	-21.80%
BALANCED
MISB	-9.04%	-9.51%
MIA	-11.70%	-11.45%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	-0.79%	-1.05%
MIDO2	-2.37%	-2.72%
IDAMAN A	-3.00%	-3.22%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1.73%	+1.59%
MMUSD	+1.68%	+1.58%

*The data above is as of August, 14th, 2026

For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – mandiri-investasi.co.id

DISCLAIMER‌
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The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

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