Weekly Market Recap 3 - 7 August 2026

Market Summary:

Global Equity: Global equities ended the week higher amid US-Iran diplomacy hopes, solid earnings season, renewed strength from AI-related stock, and soft US jobs data has pulled back the FFR rate hike expectation.
Domestic Equity: JCI ended the week +2.78% supported by better-than-expected GDP growth and July inflation with foreign inflow reach IDR695bn WoW.
Domestic Bond Market: IndoGB 10Y rallied 5bps to 7.284%, UST 10Y was choppier but ended the week lower at 4.647%. The rupiah appreciated to 17,897, inline with the broader EM FX tailwind from dollar softness. Credit risk also improved as Indo CDS 5Y fell to 90.38 from 93.60.

Key News of The Week:

US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000 (vs +83,000 consensus). The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% as the labor force participation rate fell (vs 4.2% consensus).
In July, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 from 53.3, its highest level since May 2022, signaling continued expansion; in contrast, China’s private manufacturing PMI eased to 50.9 from 51.7, a four-month low, and its official survey fell into contraction for the first time since February.
Gold’s +7.2% weekly surge was the convergence of geopolitical de-escalation hopes, a technical breakout, soft US labor data, and structural demand from central banks and ETFs. PBOC extended its buying streak to 21 consecutive months, adding 20 tons of gold reserves in July, the biggest monthly addition since October 2023.
Indonesia’s economy grew 5.29%YoY in 2Q, beating the 5.14% consensus but moderating from 5.60%YoY in 1Q. The slowdown was driven by a high Lebaran base effect on consumption and front-loaded budget efficiency cuts, while investment accelerated (6.87%YoY vs. 5.96%YoY in 1Q), suggesting underlying momentum remains intact.
Indonesia June deficit narrowed to USD450mn from May’s USD1.61bn, as exports (+8.84% YoY) outpaced import growth.
July 2026 CPI came in at 2.88% YoY, well within BI’s target band. Falling shallot and chili prices led food deflation, tied to the secondary harvest season (July–September) food inflation slowed to a six-month low (2.97% vs 4.67% in June) while core inflation held firm at 2.76% YoY.

Our View

Next week’s focus is US July CPI, the print most likely to resolve September Fed hike odds, currently volatile and repricing quickly following last week’s payrolls shock. Domestically, President Prabowo is scheduled to deliver a state address before the MPR and DPR on Friday, Aug. 14, 2026, followed by the presentation of proposed 2027 RAPBN.

With JCI valuations still compressed, we continue to see alpha from disciplined sector allocation and view 2Q26 earnings quality as the key differentiator into 2H26. In fixed income, we retain tactical 2–5yr carry and keep duration defensive, extending only on confirmed IDR stabilization and further oil de-escalation. The BI Governor succession remains the key swing factor for both equities and bonds.

Product Recommendation:

RD MISB, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MASED, RD FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF SRI Kehati, MICB, MITRAS.

Discover a detailed analysis of this week’s market performance in our comprehensive Weekly Market Recap: Read More

PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-10.66%	-25.87%
LQ45	-7.71%	-24.37%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-6.81%	-15.29%
MICB A	-7.81%	-14.89%
ASEAN5	-8.80%	-17.61%
MGSED	-0.56%	+12.54%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-4.52%	-16.75%
ETF
XMLF	-5.58%	-20.76%
BALANCED
MISB	-7.10%	-9.42%
MIA	-11.28%	-11.02%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	-1.45%	-1.70%
MIDO2	-3.13%	-3.49%
IDAMAN A	-3.38%	-3.60%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1.59%	+1.45%
MMUSD	+1.63%	+1.52%

*The data above is as of August, 7th, 2026

For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – mandiri-investasi.co.id

DISCLAIMER‌
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The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

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