Weekly Market Recap 13 -17 July 2026

Market Summary:

Global Equity: Global equities fell on concerns over the heavy pace of AI spending and its investment payoff, as well as escalating US–Iran hostilities.
Domestic Equity: JCI posted its strongest weekly gain this year at +4.24% WoW on the S&P rating affirmation, though foreign investors remained net sellers: IDR1.46tn WoW in the regular market.
Domestic Bond Market: IndoGB 10Y yield edged up +2bps WoW to 7.26%, resilient despite foreign outflows of IDR4.7tn WoW (15/7).

Key News of The Week:

US June CPI eased to 3.5%YoY from 4.2% with core at 2.6%YoY, both below consensus, on a -5.7% slump in energy prices.
Fed Chair Warsh reaffirmed the 2% inflation target, stating the FOMC has “no tolerance” for persistent inflation and that both rates and the balance sheet remain available policy tools.
US–Iran hostilities escalated as Iranian attacks killed two US service members in Jordan and struck a Kuwaiti oil facility, prompting an eighth straight night of US strikes targeting Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz.
China’s Q2 GDP grew 4.3%YoY, the slowest since Q4 2022, as fixed asset investment fell -5.7% YTD despite beats in industrial production and retail sales.
S&P affirmed Indonesia’s BBB/A-2 rating with a stable outlook, viewing fiscal and external strains as temporary, in contrast to Moody’s and Fitch’s negative outlooks.

Our View

Next week, the focus turns to BI’s July RDG (21–22 Jul), while the dominant risks still come from the AI capex debate and US–Iran hostilities. The S&P affirmation shifts the domestic narrative from rating risk toward execution as the September APBN 2027 passage and free-float reforms ahead of MSCI’s November review are now the key catalysts.

The JCI’s rebound validates our view that near-term direction is currency-led, with valuations still depressed, we continue to see alpha from disciplined sector allocation. In fixed income, softer US inflation, a possible July BI pause, and the S&P affirmation ease near-term front-end pressure. With 2-10y INDOGB spread still near-flat and foreign flows concentrated in SRBI and the short end, we see the clearest opportunity in tactical 2–5yr carry and keep duration defensive. We would extend only on confirmed curve normalization and IDR stabilization, the July RDG is a near term catalyst.

Product Recommendation:

RD MISB, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MASED, RD FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF SRI Kehati, MICB, MITRAS.

Discover a detailed analysis of this week’s market performance in our comprehensive Weekly Market Recap: Read More

PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-19.10%	-28.58%
LQ45	-18.05%	-26.54%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-11.94%	-18.04%
MICB A	-12.51%	-17.29%
ASEAN5	-13.38%	-19.75%
MGSED	+6.76%	+ 14.42%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-8.34%	-18.12%
ETF
XMLF	-14.90%	-22.99%
BALANCED
MISB	-10.98%	-11.45%
MIA	-12.58%	-12.33%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	-1.57%	-1.82%
MIDO2	-3.27%	-3.62%
IDAMAN A	-2.61%	-2.82%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1.36%	+1.22%
MMUSD	+1.49%	+1.27%

*The data above is as of July 17th, 2026

For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – mandiri-investasi.co.id

DISCLAIMER‌
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The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

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