Weekly Market Recap 18 - 21 August 2026

Market Summary:

Global Equity: Global equities ended the week lower (MSCI World: -1.19%WoW) as rising long-term yields raised concerns about the fiscal outlook and heavy Treasury/AI-related credit issuance, compounded by renewed US–Iran tensions, higher oil, and weakness in semis/AI names.
Domestic Equity: JCI rallied +1.93% WoW to 6,525.69 with foreign inflow IDR2.2Tn WoW, reversing IDR1.58tn net sell the prior week.
Domestic Bond Market: The 10Y IndoGB yield declined 23bps WoW to 6.95% and 2Y fell 18bps to 6.65%, on rupiah strength to IDR17,694/US$ and continued foreign inflow of IDR13.8Tn WoW.

Key News of The Week:

US Treasury will at least double the size of long-end liquidity-support buybacks (from a US$2bn to at least US$4bn per-operation cap) effective Sep 9 through Nov 4, after the 30Y UST yield hit 5.33%.
Total US debt surpassed US$40tn for the first time, moving closer to the statutory debt ceiling of US$41.1tn.
Gold climbed to a more than three-month high on Friday (US$4,600/oz), on ‌track for its third straight weekly gain as the U.S. Treasury’s buyback support plan dragged on the dollar.
BI held policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected. BI maintained its expectation of the next Fed rate hike in 4Q26, with global inflation forecast at 4.5% and global growth 3.0% in 2026.
Indonesia’s total external debt reached US$453.4bn in 2Q26 (+4.4% YoY, 30.6% of GDP), with govt debt at US$216.3bn (+2.9% YoY) and private debt at US$194.6bn (-0.6% YoY); the rise was driven by public debt including higher non-resident SRBI holdings. Debt remains dominated by long-term maturities (82.1% of total)
Indonesia booked a BoP deficit of -US$0.9bn in 2Q26 (1Q26: -US$9.1bn) as the current account deficit widened to US$12.5bn (-3.3% of GDP, from -US$3.6bn/-1.0% in 1Q26) while the capital and financial account recorded a US$12.0bn surplus (1Q26: -US$4.8bn deficit), supported by direct investment and portfolio investment inflows.

Our View

Rising US Treasury yields are drawing market attention due to heavy fiscal supply and shifting rate outlooks. Treasury buybacks offer only temporary liquidity support rather than fundamental relief. Meanwhile, investors will be focus on the Jackson Hole symposium for signals on future Federal Reserve policy next week.

Indonesian bonds and equities have been comparatively stable, though the CAD and the SRBI policy shift remain the key variables to watch. For IndoGBs the setup is constructive: better rupiah stability and lower FX hedging costs ease foreign re-entry, while reduced SRBI supply redirects domestic bank and institutional liquidity into the govies, both pointing to downward yield pressure. Indo equities offer a mean-reversion setup, with the JCI trading at depressed valuations and foreign positioning still light. Thus, a re-engagement catalyst (rupiah stability, BI continuity, or an improving current account) carries asymmetric upside to flows and to index performance.

Product Recommendation:

RD MISB, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MASED, MICB, MITRA, MITRAS, RD FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF SRI Kehati, ETF Mandiri Emas Syariah.

Discover a detailed analysis of this week’s market performance in our comprehensive Weekly Market Recap: Read More

PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+7.07%	-24.53%
LQ45	+4.57%	-23.86%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+5.84%	-14.84%
MICB A	+5.65%	-14.63%
ASEAN5	+3.54%	-17.28%
MGSED	-2.16%	+11.70%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+3.90%	-16.45%
ETF
XMLF	+5.75%	-20.27%
BALANCED
MISB	-7.44%	-7.92%
MIA	-10.44%	-10.18%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	-0.20%	-0.46%
MIDO2	-1.63%	-1.99%
IDAMAN A	-3.14%	-3.35%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1.83%	+1.70%
MMUSD	+1.73%	+1.63%

*The data above is as of August, 21th, 2026

For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – mandiri-investasi.co.id

DISCLAIMER‌
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The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

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