Weekly Market Recap 31 August – 4 September 2026

Market Summary:

Global Equity: Global equities ended the week mixed, with MSCI ASEAN (+0.93%) leading gains while the Nikkei (-2.09%) was the worst performer.
Domestic Equity:The JCI gained 1.82% for the week, returning to the 6,600 level, supported by a stronger rupiah and Rp2.3tn of foreign inflows.
Domestic Bond Market: The 10Y and 2Y IndoGB yields rose 12bps WoW to 7.12% and 6.74%, respectively, tracking a roughly 6bps increase in the 10Y UST yield.

Key News of The Week:

UST yields moved higher intra-week, with the 10Y touching 4.81% (a near three-year high) on renewed geopolitical tension and higher oil prices, before easing after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support keeping rates unchanged at the September FOMC if incoming data continue to show disinflation. Yields then rose again on Friday as August nonfarm payrolls surged by 162K, well above the 53K consensus, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% and participation up to 61.6%.
Oil prices rose 7% WoW as US-Iran military strikes resumed for the first time in several weeks.
The Nikkei fell, led by richly valued stocks, as rising JGB yields and growing expectations of near-term BoJ tightening weighed on sentiment.
Indonesia posted a US$121mn trade surplus in July after two consecutive months of deficit, bringing the YTD surplus to US$3.7bn. The surplus reflected moderating imports amid normalizing oil prices, slower capital goods imports, and easing supply chain disruptions, though import growth remained elevated at +27.0% YoY. Export growth, however, slowed from June, driven by declines in palm oil, downstream nickel, and coal exports.
Indonesia’s August CPI rose +0.21% MoM and +3.19% YoY (July: +2.88%), driven by food (broiler chicken, rice), while transport posted deflation on lower airfares and fuel prices. Core inflation rose to +2.92% YoY from +2.76% in July. Meanwhile, the global FAO Food Price Index rose +1.9% MoM in August to its highest level since late 2022, with inflation concerns mounting amid ongoing Black Sea supply disruptions, Eurozone heatwaves, and a prolonged El Niño.

Our View

With labor data coming in firmer than expected, attention now turns to this week’s US CPI print as the final key input ahead of the 16 September FOMC meeting. We expect August CPI to have climbed, consistent with last week’s PCE data. Rate futures currently assign roughly a 65% probability to a hike.

Indonesian bonds and equities have been comparatively stable. For IndoGBs, the setup is constructive: improved rupiah stability and lower FX hedging costs ease foreign re-entry, while reduced SRBI supply redirects domestic bank and institutional liquidity into govies, both pointing to downward pressure on yields. Indonesian equities offer a mean-reversion opportunity, with the JCI trading at depressed valuations and foreign positioning still light. Any improvement in the domestic macro picture therefore carries asymmetric upside for both flows and index performance.

Product Recommendation:

RD MISB, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MASED, MICB, MITRA, MITRAS, RD FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF SRI Kehati, ETF Mandiri Emas Syariah.

Discover a detailed analysis of this week’s market performance in our comprehensive Weekly Market Recap: Read More

PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+13.64%	-23.25%
LQ45	+13.20%	-22.32%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+12.62%	-13.72%
MICB A	+12.12%	-13.57%
ASEAN5	+9.79%	-16.23%
MGSED	-7.18%	+11.20%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+13.16%	-14.71%
ETF
XMLF	+14.34%	-18.62%
BALANCED
MISB	-6.62%	-7.11%
MIA	-8.93%	-8.66%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	-0.31%	-0.57%
MIDO2	-1.80%	-2.16%
IDAMAN A	-3.03%	-3.25%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+2.05%	+1.91%
MMUSD	+1.82%	+1.71%

*The data above is as of September, 4th, 2026

For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – mandiri-investasi.co.id

DISCLAIMER‌
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The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

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